It is the end of the year and time to blog forth my state of the world musings. I am a disabled older person who spends a lot of time in front of the computer keeping up with the alternative media and even the alternative alternative media. Truth can be like a Russian doll, pun intended; truth inside truth, inside truth.
However, you can get to a level of understanding where you can make good guesses about how things are going to go. It does take time. Most people do not have the time, or the inclination. I do. I want to know what is really going on.
So, if you do not have as much time as I do, or as much skill as I have developed at getting to the truth of things, you might want to benefit a little from my understanding. I am a kind of optimistic pessimist. I see that evil tends to rule the earth, but it is not all hopeless.
Right now the world is at a critical turning point. It is an interesting time to be alive. The old Chinese curse is "may you live in interesting times", but things are actually getting better for most people. What matters is not to live in one of the conflict zones.
Right now a world war three seems almost inevitable. However, the chance of it turning into a nuclear war that wipes out life on earth is declining. I think the post cold war generation has never understood what a nuclear war would mean. But those who do, remember the pre Reagan and Gorbachev era remember and "kiss your ass goodbye". The predictions for the aftermath of a nuclear war ranged from "cockroaches inherit the earth" to the "Mad Max" kind of world.
Increasing technology is greatly reducing the likely destructiveness of a nuclear war, and making it more winnable. Whether this makes it more likely to be fought is untestable. It is clear the American oligarchy does not have much fear of a nuclear war. They never did, even during the cold war. It seems to be just starting to sink in to them that they would probably lose a nuclear exchange with the Russians. This might increase their fear more than worries of mutual annihilation.
The Russians have won the technological race. Even during their economic adjustment to the breakup of the USSR, they kept their research and development programs going. The Americans let theirs go; they assumed the "Soviets" were finished, they could exploit their victory, and new weapons would be expensive and unnecessary.
It is becoming clear that much of the American nuclear arsenal does not even work anymore. Control and communications systems are thirty to forty years old. They depend on satellite based reconnaissance and positioning systems which the Russians would knock out right away.
The Russians have been busy upgrading their nuclear force in recent years. They have developed super fast and accurate missiles that are starting to give them the ability to stop an American nuclear attack in the air and launch one of their own which could overcome American defenses. In other words, to do what fifty years of peacenik dogma has considered impossible; to win a nuclear war.
How much of a "nuclear winter" would be created by this nuclear war is debatable. Contrary to the hysteric view propagated by the disarmament movement, nobody is going to go after an enemy's cities, at least not of an enemy that can fire back. They would go after the enemy's own nuclear forces first, and then its conventional military bases, ships, or troops in the field.
The Russians are in the process of rolling out their new "Prometheus" defense missile. They say it will be ready by 2017 but they may be much further along than that. It should be capable of stopping any American nuclear attack in the air. It does so by great speed and precision, and by setting off a cluster of nuclear blasts in the path of the oncoming warheads and dummies.
What kind of damage this will still cause to the environment is uncertain. There will be much less fallout and no smoke clouds to darken the atmosphere. There will still be radioactive bits of missiles falling everywhere and particles being carried in the upper atmosphere.
The Russians do not have a network of bases all over the world. Their armed forces are almost all protected under this defense shield. The air and sea forces they have committed to the Syria campaign are a very small part of their total force. Their strategy is to defend their own territory by fighting in the area immediately around it, and to extend forces far from their frontiers only in a limited way and at the invitation of allies.
Uncle Sam has his forces spread all over the world. There is no way they can all be defended adequately from a nuclear attack. The Russian "Topol" missile will get to them. The new "Yars" is beginning to replace the Topol and is going to be impossible for anything the Americans have, or have under development, to stop.
In short, the Russian military is organized to defend Russian territory. The American military is organized to garrison the planet. The Russians have sufficient resources to accomplish their goals. The Americans can never have enough resources for what they are trying to do. This should be enough explanation of how the Russians would win a war with the Americans, especially a nuclear one.
The big danger from the Americans is that they are going to start using nuclear weapons to wipe out countries which do not follow their orders. What led to the temporary breakdown of NATO in the 1970s was the revelation that the Americans planned to wipe out western Europe if the Russians looked like they were about to overrun it.
At that time Uncle Sam had to start seriously negotiating with the Russians to end the cold war and bring about the "detente" period. However, since then Uncle Sugar has deepened his control over Europe, using the European Union and control over the world's communications and money transfer systems. Many key people in Europe are bribed or blackmailed by U.S. intelligence services, or are ideologically motivated agents.
But again the danger of being tied into an organization like NATO are becoming clear to most Europeans, especially as a new "cold war" is growing between the Americans and the Russians. There is also the supreme stupidity of Canada being linked into NATO and NORAD. But Canada has a long history of galloping off to other people's wars, which we have no real interests in. The Europeans are a bit smarter than this and have worked to curb the ambitions of the Americans and their own "Atlanticists".
But this is still the great danger; that when, not if, the Americans get a war going on Russia's borders, and the Europeans refuse to follow orders, they could be hit with nuclear weapons. The question is, will the Russians put themselves at risk by hitting, or threatening to hit, American cites in order to deter that. I think that ultimately they will have to, or be isolated and ground down, but the various permutations of how this would play out are infinite.
Ultimately, the maniacs currently in control of the U.S. of A. have to be removed. That must be the aim of the Russians and their allies, and they clearly know it. They have a pretty good strategy for carrying it out. The three elements of a strategy for overthrowing a tyrannical regime are; isolate, defund, and break command chains in police and military.
The American elite do not seem to see themselves as losing. Many of the frantic opponents of American hegemony on internet discussions seem to agree with the hegemonists, that they are not breaking down but consolidating. One might see it that way if you rely only on the same information sources as allies of "Atlanticism". But it is getting easier to access the "Eurasianist" perspective as the internet develops.
This is what a world war three will be between, by the way; the Atlanticists and the Eurasianists. Russia and China on one side, Europe and North America on the other. But as I said, the Eurasianists are winning the prelude to war and the Atlanticists are becoming isolated, bankrupted, and are starting to lose control of their military. All they will have left are their instruments of internal suppression. And of course, their "weapons of mass destruction."
Eurasia knows that the more they break down the Atlanticists before the final conflict, the shorter and less destructive that conflict will be. While a world war three is almost inevitable, its likely destructiveness is getting smaller all the time.
Things will likely get going after the next American president takes office in 2017. Obama has had some idea of what he is playing with and has tried to calm things down as much as he can without getting impeached or assassinated. You have to remember that the most extreme factions in the American oligarchy are dominant in the government. They have been working a long time to rig the voting system in their favor. They will make sure there is a "war hawk" in the oval office after the next election, no matter what the American public wants regarding foreign policy.
The trigger for the global conflict could be almost anything. The trigger for the final American descent into totalitarianism will likely be some sort of false flag extravaganza. The American oligarchy would love to set off a nuclear bomb in an American city and blame it on that amorphous enemy, "terrorism".
The remaining political independence of the Pentagon and some industrial interests, and some local and state governments, would end. It is really something when the Pentagon has become one of the more moderating influences within the establishment. But total darkness would descend in America, with full suspension of all civil liberties. Power will pass to some sort of unelected junta, and let the wars begin.
Of course, wars they ultimately have to lose. I believe the whole thing will evolve in three stages. First the US will try to take on Russia directly, right on their borders. They will be surprised when the Russians beat the crap out of them.
The Russian army has also been completely overhauled in the past decade. It is not the wretched conscript force that did so badly in Afghanistan and Chechnya. They have gone to a volunteer army. They are now better equipped and trained than NATO armies.
Uncle Sam's Army has been broken down by 15 years of unwinnable counter insurgency warfare. They never were a really good army; serving a government of people with a doctrine like "you don't win a war by winning it" is very demoralizing. The Atlanticists have a sociopath's view of the world, that conflict is about harassing anyone asserting any independence, until they give in or are completely destroyed. Soldiers are just the "dumb, stupid animals" which you throw at the enemy.
It will also soon become evident that the Russians can and will launch nuclear strikes on American cities, with little fear of effective counterstrikes, if the Americans try to wipe out countries which try to switch sides. Some think the elite will not care if U.S. cities are hit; they have decided they do not need all these people anyway. But the Russians can figure out where the elites are holed up.
The end of the first stage will be Europe throwing American stooges and troops out and making her own peace with Russia. Under the Russian umbrella, states such as India and probably even Japan and Korea, will start moving away from the U.S. It will certainly be the end of the dollar as the world's currency standard.
What happens in the middle east will be especially interesting. The Israelis will discover that their own nuclear weapons are not much use to them. All it would take to take them down them would be an air and sea blockade. Half the Israeli population have foreign passports and will be frantically trying to leave before the final collapse. The more fanatical Zionists may try to expel or exterminate the Palestinian population within its boundaries. They may try to prevent jews from leaving Israel.
The second phase will likely be with the Atlantic elite trying to wall off Eurasia using its still formidable naval power, and securing control of the African and South American continents as a resource base. This will mean the outright military invasion of these continents, with contempt for national boundaries and sovereignty.
These attempts at invasion and occupation will not go well, even if America tries to draft the millions of troops to make it effective. With some help from Russia and China, and probably much of Europe, the local populations will do a pretty good job of driving out this invasion, and their local oligarchies along with it.
The Americans will likely try using chemical and biological weapons on these populations. There is a limit to what the Russians and the Chinese could do to help. It is harder to use such weapons from long range than it is to deliver nuclear weapons. Maybe the Americans will have to be given another nuclear demonstration.
Eventually the Atlantic elite will be confined to North America, which will be very hard to attack with conventional forces. The American oligarchy has already driven their country into the ground. They no longer have the capacity to supply most of their own needs. If the dollar becomes worthless and the military is driven back to the home continent, there will be total collapse and mass starvation.
The third phase of the world war would be of the Eurasian forces seeking to end once and all the risk of a nuclear apocalypse from the remaining Atlanticists. Especially, if the more religious elements of this elite are in control, with its "true belief" in an end time, an apocalypse, the "Rapture" of "God's Elect", and all that.
Yet what seems likely about the American oligarchy is that most of them will not give in under any circumstances. They may try to take everything down with them. They will certainly not hesitate to use nukes against their own "population". This is partly religious fundamentalism and partly "free market" fundamentalism of the "better dead than red" variety. Thus it is seen that the American arsenal of weapons of mass destruction are more dangerous to the American people than to any foreigners.
Many oligarchs would try to hide among the population and await opportunity to rebuilt their dream. This could limit attacks on the populations. Oligarchs have always been good at joining their own opposition; slipping out the back door and joining the mob coming in the front door.
The Atlanticists are especially good at controlling their opposition from within. They could try to convince everyone that the old order has been overthrown, but the Russians and Chinese likely will not be fooled. They will insist that the weapons be handed over.Fairly soon, the remaining defense capacity of the American state will degrade to a point where the Russians and allies can land forces on this continent and begin hunting down and securing the nukes and the Kooks. The world war would be considered over when the last weapons of mass destruction are out of the hands of right wing fanatics.
The Eurasians would then have the right and necessity to occupy the USA and probably Canada, to ensure it never again become "the enemy and disturber of the peace of the world." The way the USA handled Germany and Japan when they were in this position is remembered by international law. We wonder how the victors this time will handle the enormous physical and social reconstruction job.
Of course, an enlightened occupation would do both the USA and Canada a lot of good. While our American Cousins are in much worse shape in this regard, we both have unreformable institutions. We are also stuck into ideologies which make it impossible for us to understand and solve our real problems.
But the consequences for Canada would likely be less severe. Our economy is hugely dependent on exports and has the same problem of being unable to produce most of what we need. There is no real food distribution system, no stockpiles of basic foods. We likely would not get hit with nuclear weapons, but the global atmospheric effects of a nuclear exchange could reduce world food production. In short, it could get pretty hungry for a few years.
Our fuel distribution systems are set up to meet American needs, not our own. That could be deadly in the Canadian winter. At least we would have enough electrical generating capacity.
Of course, if the USA became blockaded, we would be blockaded too. When the American economy collapses, so will our American market. We would likely be occupied by the American army and much of our production commandeered. They might decide to suspend our government.
How the Canadian public will react to this is an interesting question. In the first phase of the war the government and public will probably go along with whatever Uncle Sam does, buying into most of the propaganda. By the second phase, it will start to be obvious who the good guys and the bad guys are in this story, and the economic disruption will start to hit home.
Canadians really do have a different culture than the yankees, deep down, and the rationalizations for continuing the war will not fly. We have more institutional barriers to setting up a true police state. The Americans will probably occupy us, and will not be resisted. They will find plenty of collaborators, but few with enough brains to be any use to them.
The best thing Canadians could do in such a situation would be to focus on protecting the civilian population and to avoid anything that would invite retaliation from occupation forces. That is probably what Canadians will do.
We would have the capacity to recover fairly quick from a global war, much more quickly than a defeated America. We would be less destroyed. Once we get organized, we have the capacity to turn fairly quickly to providing our own basic needs again.
When the next occupation happens, that of the victorious Eurasian allies, we will likely recover much more easily than The States. Eurasia will have an easier time with us, than with trying to keep order among the Americans. We can imagine what that will be like; redneck militias trying to establish libertarian ministates, minorities having to arm themselves to defend against racists and vigilantes, gangsters and oligarchs trying to get control of areas. And guns, guns, guns, everywhere.
As for the rest of the world in the aftermath of this, various states which want to be imperialistic now that the USA is no longer there to restrain them, will have to be curbed. These include Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and most powerfully, Japan under its present regime. A new system of global security, based on rules rather than hegemony, will have to be developed.
Without backers, the Islamic state will fold. Israel will do as the Iranians foretold; disappear from the page of history. The Kurds are likely to get their own state; they deserve it. Throughout the middle east, hard line islamic regimes will fall, to be replaced by pragmatic islamist states or secular regimes.
The present regime in Japan might want to try to relive the 1930s. They are successors of the old militarists who have been trying for generations to get back into power. They will likely end up with an alliance against them led by China and Russia, get clobbered in some sort of sideshow to the world war, and be thrown out by the Japanese people. who will be able to sort themselves out without another foreign occupation.
The two Koreas will be an interesting problem. The republic in the south is something created by American imperialism and would not last long without American "guidance". The Americans might try to repeat the first Korean war using south Korea's army. It will play out much like last time, with North Korea defeated but China intervening and turning the fight into a stalemate. But Korea will soon become isolated and forced to give in.
So called international law is about how people would like the world to be, not how it is. If a real system of enforcement became possible, then a real system of international law would become possible. As old Thomas Hobbes said, there is no law without enforcement.
The United Nations will become totally inadequate, forcing a change of structure or a whole new organization. It is very sure its headquarters will move out of North America. A new system of global governance will come into being as the old "Bretton Woods" system, mainly World Bank and International Monetary Fund, goes out of being.
International law will start to have some teeth. We will move toward the only situation which can really lead to world peace; some powerful states committed to International law and who will act against other states whose regimes attempt aggressively interventionist foreign policies.
We are going to a "multipolar world", where no power can dominate, militarily or financially. We are going to a system of currencies "floating" against each other to balance out trade and currency exchanges. There will no longer be a "reserve currency", a world currency like the dollar, or even a regional currency like the Euro. There will be no return to a "gold standard"; that did not work before, it will not work now.
The nations will have to figure out how to make that work, especially how to keep speculators from causing havoc. In this conditions, any country which for any reason is incapable of prudently managing its own currency, and especially if it has to use someone else's, will become a poor country.
There will not be another "post war boom" after this next world war. The productive capacity of the earth is now full utilized, and there is no more room to boom. There will be a postwar period of equalization of living standards and elimination of unjustified overproduction.
Will be, will be, will be. I am starting to sound too much like a futurologist. This means it is time to wrap this up and leave the post war order for the next essay. I do want to evolve my picture of a post war world.
I will conclude by saying that we likely have another year of relative calm ahead, and in 2017 all hell will break loose. Canada is in a position to avoid the worst of it. If you have lots of money, and really want to be safe, Australia and New Zealand would be the best bets.
There is no point to turning survivalist, stockpiling food and digging shelters. If there is a real breakdown in civil order, it will not help. Rely on mutual survival, on the resilience of civilized society. If that fails totally, or there is a really intense nuclear exchange, most of us will perish no matter what we do.
Happy New Year, and be sure and get lots of turkey and eggnog!