August 6th, 2015. Happy Hiroshima day, everyone. It is 70 years since the Enola Gay made Hiroshima famous, and there are some who want to mark the event.
I was over at Bell Trinity church this afternoon. The main celebrations had not started yet and various peace groups had set up tables inside the church. A few people were looking at their offerings or getting a Shaitsu treatment.
None of the people I talked to could answer my one question. "What is happening in the world right now that makes a nuclear war very likely?" One talked about the US and Israel. What it was about them that was creating a nuclear war danger, he could not say.
One was aware that there was increasing tension between the US and Russia right now. As to what was causing this tension, she did not know. She thought there was a long history of tension between these two, but could not say much about it.
Warfare has greatly increased in the past fifteen years. Why is that? None of them offered any ideas about it. So, it did not look like your peace movement was having much effect, because it has no ideas about what makes peace."Well, we write letters to politicians...."
Do these politicians ever write back? Do you get meetings with them?
Doesn't seem like it.
I decided not to hang around for the actual ceremony, even if they were going to have The Raging Grannies on the bill, as well as those drummers with the massive drums,Taiko drums I think they are called.
The last time I attended a Hiroshima day celebration was before Fukushima. Now Japan has inflicted its own nuclear holocaust on itself. Then, they actually had an ex mayor of Hiroshima in attendance and he was a pretty good speaker with a decent good command of English.
Then, they did seem to have some ideas about how to end the nuclear threat. It involved, I recall, removing governments from office who do not take seriously their international treaty obligations, or the disarmament process.
Harper is still in office. The maniacs running American foreign policy are not going to be removed from power without great violence. But worst of all, people seem to have lost their fear of a nuclear calamity. The natural hysterics who used to run around screaming "save the earth" have now been co-opted into chasing about raving, "save the climate".
What really disgusts me about the climate change yo yos is that half of them do not even know what the word "Fukushima" signifies. Or, they think it is something of minor importance. But most of the remaining "ban the Bomb" people do not seem to know where what a "Donbass" is.
One of these guys at one of the "community tables" at the event seemed to think Iran is really trying to develop a nuclear bomb to drop on Israel. So much for the ability of these groups to counter war propaganda even in their own members. But nobody is really looking to drop anything on the Israelis.
Where there is a very big chance of a nuclear war starting in the next few years is in the little enclave carved out eastern Ukraine called "Donbass" or sometimes "Novorossiya". The people there, to make a long story short, decided they did not want to continue living under a series of whack job governments imposed on Ukraine by the IMF and American intelligence services.
The propaganda bubble of western media describes this as some sort of Russian invasion of Ukraine. It was about local people rising up in 2015 and beating the crap out of a national army of conscripts who simply did not want to fight against their own people.
Rather than encourage them, the Russian government has tried to rein in the Donbassians. Again, a very complicated game is going on, but to make it short the US is using this as a pretext to bring American forces right up to Russia's borders. It seems likely the US wants to start a war with Russia as a way of reasserting its declining power.
Russia has been doing a very good job of helping the US decline as a super power. Especially, catalyzing a new world financial system that is rapidly making the dollar obsolete. With the US losing its economic clout, all it has left is its still powerful military, especially its nuclear arsenal.
However, the US is starting to wake up to the fact that they have lost their technological edge. The Russians are able to do basic technological research and translate that into efficient weapons. The US corruption has reached such a level that they are almost incapable of new weapons programs.
The Russians now have qualitative superiority in most categories of weapons. They can keep the costs of new weapons down. They have total superiority in two important areas. These are Ballistic missiles and antiballistic missiles. These destroy the old "Mutual Assured Destruction" that has kept peace on the world for most of the last seventy years.
The Russians do not have their new S-500 "Prometheus" missile fully deployed yet. This is the first really effective defense against Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles. It will stop anything the Americans can fire at Russia, even from right across their border in the Baltic countries. Or Ukraine.
On the offensive side, the Russians have fully deployed the RS-24 "Yars" missile, which can defeat all US missile defenses. That is not saying much, because the US has bungled development of missile defense systems. It is often taken as an axiom that a nuclear war cannot be won. But technology seems to have made that axiom out of date. Russia is almost at a point of being able to destroy the US in a nuclear war and then survive the counterattack.
The US may have a window until 2017 to attack Russia. Then the window closes for at least a decade until they can change the way they run the Pentagon. But it is not likely they will be able to change their system without it falling apart.
The American oligarchy has an incredible system of suppression and control and will likely be able to maintain their system within their sphere of control while the sphere shrinks. The danger is that they will do a spazz out to try to preserve their domination of the globe.
So, the ultimate danger of a nuclear war, so long feared, will be in the next couple of years. After that, Russia will be increasingly able to shut down the Americans. Yet the reasons which are making a nuclear war more likely are also making it more survivable.
In the old cold war days it was assumed that no one dared start a nuclear war because no one could win it. Such a war was conceived as both sites shooting off all the missiles they had within half an hour, wiping out life on earth. Strategies could be much more complex than that. For example, Israel has long had a strategy of attacking a non nuclear nation as a warning to other countries. This is the key; attack the nuclear opponent's non nuclear allies.
As it becomes possible to actually stop an attack in the air, somebody might have the idea of saturating the enemy's defenses. Since the anti-ballistic missiles also use a nuclear warhead to make sure of killing the target, this leads to a lot of air bursts and raining down of radioactive debris. This can severely contaminate the atmosphere, which might kill us off eventually though not in one big bang.
Fortunately, the Russians have a pretty good idea of what the risks are. They have outmaneuvered all efforts by the USA to force them into a fight. This is rough for the people of Donbass, stuck in a frozen conflict. But it gives Russia and its allies time. Every year that goes by, they get stronger, the US and its "Atlanticist" allies grow weaker.
This is how the third world war is shaping up. It is the Atlanticists in North America and Europe, plus Australia, probably Japan at first, who will initiate conflict. Against these are the Eurasianists in, of course, the Eurasian landmass. South America and Africa are up for grabs and will likely be the big battlefields. It will mostly be about the Atlanticists exhausting themselves in defensive actions as their ability to maintain a war erodes and their allies switch sides.
How much damage to the planet this will cause, depends on how much the contending sides try to use nuclear weapons. It could turn out not too bad, with the Atlanticists, definitely the bad guys of the story, collapsing fairly quickly. If the oligarchy decides it wants to go out with a bang, it will get very bad and it will be worst in North America.
The best way to really work for peace and disarmament is to work with Russia, China, and allies and their three part strategy to break the Atlanticist oligarchy. That is, break the chain of command to their police and military, isolate them, and cut off their sources of funds. Doing this domestically, in the belly of the beast, requires some leadership ability that seems way beyond the various organizations marking Hiroshima day.
To repeat, the ultimate risk for a nuclear holocaust is in the next few years. The danger will persist until the Atlanticist oligarchy has fallen. Remember what I say.