So, we have Obama back again. What difference does this make? I just finished writing a whole big essay on that topic for the University course I am doing. My thesis was that it made some difference, especially to foreign countries which have to deal with the U.S. of A. When it gets marked and handed back I will put it on this blawg and elaborate a bit.
The course is "Introduction to International relations". I already have some understanding of international relations, spending a lot of my time, probably too much, reading up on the GlobalResearch.org and other sites. It is always a bit risky taking a course where you know more than the instructor about some aspects of it. But I can learn some of the scientific theory about it. Realism, Liberalism, constructivism. Game theory. Rational response, bureaucratic response, organizational response.
But during the summer, before I started this course, I sat down and wrote out what I thought was a possible future if the world goes really bad; a 'future history' or thought experiment. I showed it to a couple of people but they had no response. It is something most people do not want to think about; world war three, nuclear war, etc. If people did, it would make it less likely that such things will happen. But here is my mental exercise, based on my years of reading about "international relations".
Remember that this is a worst case, but I think we are possibly headed for a world war. The U.S. will lose it because they have this huge military machine but they do not have the industrial base and resources anymore to keep it going under total war conditions. But before the bastards go down they will wreak incredible havoc; just like the last world war.
This time I hope they kill all the fascists and thereby insure there is never another world war. Some people sneer at comparing the present situation to the lead up to WW2 and the American elite to the fascist regimes. I think somebody does not want us to examine closely how Hitler and Mussolini got into power, and apply it to the present day U.S.A.
It is totally valid to compare the neoFascists of today with the fascists of the 1930s. They are not just the philosophic successors; they are often the direct descendants. The father and grandfather of the two president Bushes, Prescott Bush, was Hitler's chief agent in the U.S. and kept dealing with Germany after war was declared.
By the way, I get very impatient with people who throw around the term "conspiracy theorist". There is nothing theoretical about it.
This is also less likely with Obama in office. Not that the big O is such a nice guy, but he is quite smart and would not get led into this kind of thing by fanatical advisors. This is a Romney scenario.
2013- U.S. finally attacks Iran after destroying Syria with Israeli help. Israel has already attacked Iran. Iran does not fold. Oil from Persian gulf shut off, causing economic havoc in Europe, where the Euro block is breaking up as countries start leaving. Russia and China finally forced to act, and cut off U.S. troops in Afghanistan and Central Asia. Pakistan invites in Chinese troops to counter India.
These U.S. troops try to use nuclear weapons to prevent capture, get them used right back at them. U.S. tries to back the Russians off by firing nukes at selected Russian bases. Russians retaliate by hitting American bases. Americans back off.
Negotiations begin, although fighting goes on in Iran and Russians begin pressure on East European countries to remove NATO bases there. NATO command structure prevents U.S. from retaliating there.
2014- Iranians using Russian air defense weapons wear down U.S. air power and U.S. army is not large enough to defeat and occupy Iran on the ground when Iran has help from Russia and China. U.S. again tries to use nukes, Russians fire some warning nukes at U.S. creating panic in U.S. and final imposition of martial law.
U.S. leaders are amazed that Russia will use its nuclear arsenal to protect its allies, even at risk of attack on themselves. Completely destroys their calculations. But Russians really have no choice if they want to survive at all.
New elections to European parliament brings Eurosceptics into power. They use the full power they have under Euro charter, take control over NATO, start pressing U.S. to leave Europe.
China is effectively blockaded by U.S. navy. Cannot support allies in Africa as U.S. secures control over minerals.
2015- U.S. now also acts in Latin America to secure resources, meets stronger resistance there. Brazil acts to defend other countries. U.S. does not have enough troops, tries to fight from the air. Its war machine is breaking down. It is short of raw materials for production, cut off from its cheap manufacturing sources, cannot reconstitute a domestic industry fast enough.
Europe now tells U.S. to leave. U.S. refuses. NATO armies turn on U.S. forces and disarm them. Worst fighting is in the U.K., where U.S. lands new forces to secure British nukes, but which are driven out by French and other NATO forces coming through the Chunnel.
Stalemated war continues in middle east, mostly in the territory of Kurdistan.
U.S. tries to negotiate again, offering a "Eurasia and Oceania" division of the world, where they leave the Eurasian land mass, and keep everything else as their empire. They are told it is not theirs to bargain with.
2016- U.S. army finally collapses in middle east. State of Israel also collapses. Israeli fanatics try to use their nuclear weapons to prevent occupation, get preemptively nuked by Russia. Much of Israeli population is killed, rest try to emigrate.
Despotisms in middle east collapse, populations ally with Russia and China. China can now adequately support its allies in Africa, and the Africa conflict intensifies. South Africa now sides with the anti -U.S. alliance.
China now has its new naval forces ready; long range missiles and submarines. Forces U.S. navy away from coasts of East Asia. U.S. finds its carriers are useless, easily sunk in this kind of war. Taiwan, Japan, Korea all switch sides against U.S.
2017- U.S. has great trouble finding troops to fight, and keeping them supplied. Air power losing effectiveness against Russian and Chinese air defense systems. U.S. Army collapsed against Russian and Chinese, and now also European, supplied national armies in Africa and Latin America.
In Pacifac, China compels south east asian nations to break ties with U.S. Europe and Russia reassures them by promising to insure that China will not dominate them.
New U.S. president comes into office, again tries to negotiate, insisting he has lead a democratic revolution and will reform the country, keep the peace. Conditions in North America now very bad.
Alliance does not buy it. They confer, decide that U.S. must be disarmed and occupied. Begin plans to encircle North America.
2018- Australia now changes sides. U.S. now totally isolated. Internal power struggle between religious and other fanatics, and those who want to surrender. European Union lands forces in South America, and it begins fighting its way up through Central America. Then Russians land forces in Alaska.
U.S. now has shorter supply lines, some troops who think occupation will be the end of the world, and still a stockpile of weapons, so they put up some resistance.
2019- Final drama of the war, as European and Russian forces close in on American heartland, move their missile interceptors closer to restrict U.S. ability to launch missiles. Greenland, then Newfoundland, then Nova Scotia are occupied.
U.S. military surrendering in mass, but die hards still have control of nuclear and other weapons. U.S. and Canada populations starving, revolution breaks out. Remnants of U.S. government uses nukes on their own people to try to put down disturbances. Really believe the world should end rather than go "communist" or "atheist" and think that they alone will be "raptured" up to heaven.
Most of them are prevented from firing nukes, but some missiles reach alliance countries. War ends when the last U.S. nuclear weapons are taken by alliance troops. But the occupying armies still have a hard time restoring order in U.S., feeding the population, stopping fighting between left and right wing fanatics.
Whew! Now, what is the best case scenario? It is, that the saner elements of the U.S. military, industrialists, and government, especially the state governments, get together and decide that this has gone far enough already, and just throw the nut bars out and go back to more regular capitalism.
You know, I am thinking of revising and polishing these ideas a bit, and trying to get them published. But with Obama back again, the start date for WW3 is moved back to about 2017.